Wednesday, November 7, 2012 - Volume 3, Number 19

© Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project.  All Rights Reserved.

The 56th Presidential Election

How UWFR Came to its Prescient Conclusion


At the end of it all, the same factors that we considered in play in the wake of the 2010 elections remained in play to the end.  Starting with our initial, tentative assessment in our October 28, 2010 UWFR, more concretely forecast in our November 4, 2010 UWFR, and flatly reinforced in our January 25, 2012 UWFR,  we laid out the reasons for our expectations of a President Barak Obama re-election.  No need to repeat all of that here, and except to add or reinforce a some key observations:


First, Governor Mitt Romney was the best candidate the Republicans could have fielded against Barak Obama, and we predicted in January that a Romney-Obama race would be the closest – but still end with Obama victorious.  However, the hardliners within the Republican party will take the opposite lesson, for reasons we also long ago detailed in the UWFRs listed above. Second, the Democratic strategists actually hurt their leader’s prospects, and only did not fail in derailing Obama’s re-election because of the strength of the underlying forces (“We’re the children of the future and we’re kinda’ blaming you?”  Really?).


Thirdly, why were we not dissuaded from our initial prediction with the consistent polls showing the undecided breaking for Mr. Romney? Because it was our assessment that while many did seriously consider going back to a Republican candidate, we expected many of those past Obama supporters to return to Obama at the final moment of truth, notwithstanding what they told the pollsters.  Lastly, if we could sum it up in one core factor:  While we at UWFR favored the prospect of a Romney presidency, the governor, and less so the rest of the Republican Party, never clearly answered how his presidency would offer anything truly different than the policies that allowed the U.S. economy slide off into an economic ditch.


Now for the next four years:  Next week, we will publish our assessment of what you can expect from a second Obama presidential term.  And you know we will get right.  Don’t be selfish – share with your friends.




Our forecast record cannot be beat.  One can follow the herd chasing the latest hyperbolic, melodramatic micro-trend on Facebook and Twitter, or one can be wisely and judiciously in front of it with UWFR. 


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Click on the map above to access PBS’s interactive electoral map to explore different possible scenarios.  Above image shows latest election forecast before UWFR going to press.  For latest map, go to Election Results at CNN.com.


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© Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project – All Rights Reserved.