Tuesday, November 6, 2012 - Volume 3, Number 18

© Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project.  All Rights Reserved.

The 56th Presidential Term

UWFR Makes its Final Forecast for 2012 Vote


Everywhere on the Internet, television, and in print, from national pundits to frontline, everyday Facebook posters, each prediction seems to align with the predictor’s predilections and political preferences.  The polls, meanwhile, after swinging back and forth recently between the Republican and Democratic candidates, have tightened to razor thin margins, if not outright dead heats in key states.  Respectable and credible columnists have come down on both sides of what the future holds, again, with forecasts almost entirely in agreement with their own political views.


For us here at UWFR, this is one forecast we would rather not make.  With only two choices, the value of calling the right outcome is small, while the cost of getting it wrong remains larger.  Even fools who make predictions on social media today on faulty grounds will be proved right tomorrow, while very smart people will be shown to be wrong.  Furthermore, it is difficult to not root for one’s prediction, once made, even when that conflicts with one’s preferred outcome otherwise.  And, what goes into voters’ minds at the final moment of decision can never be fully quantified by any poll or model, and with a close race, a small effect can have a big effect.


Lastly, we see little value in making a prediction on something which we will all know as a fact soon enough.  Why do we spend so much time on trying to guess even just a few hours ahead what will be the result of the 2012 election?  Nonetheless, we have taken on this job voluntarily, and “forecast" is part of our name, so here it is:


We expect, with a modest level of confidence, as we have said since November 2010, and despite the best possible candidate since posited by the opposing party, that Barak Obama will be re-elected president of the United States of America.


Post-added clarification 11-6-12; 1:30:00 PM CST:

“Modest level of confidence” means we do not foreclose an alternative outcome, but rather that we are indicating which is, in our assessment, the likelier one, even if only slightly more likely.  An upset is always possible.

At UWFR we have a policy of not merely repeating what others are saying.  If you’d like to read a state by state analysis, we recommend Michael Tomasky’s column at TheDailyBeast.com.




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 PBS Interactive Electoral Map


Click on the map above to access PBS’s interactive electoral map to explore different possible scenarios.


Main Index of the Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review


© Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project – All Rights Reserved.