Sunday, November 4, 2012 - Volume 3, Number 17

© Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project.  All Rights Reserved.

UWFR in Front of the Herd

National Commentator Puts Forth UWFR Theory:

Social Media Influences, Directs Perceptions


Juan Williams Explains Opinion Polls After First Debate


With our first UWFR brief published after the opinion polls came out showing a lopsided win for Republican candidate Governor Mitt Romney over sitting Democratic incumbent Barak Obama in the first presidential debate (UWFR Oct 9), we began to publicly formulate a theory as to why this debate had such an unprecedented effect on public opinion and its reflection in the polls.  In the following briefs published through the rest of October we fleshed out our conception as to the effect of social media and the instant online (and other) reporting on it.  Now, four weeks later, we have company.


Last week, on October 25, on the FoxNews.com site, moderately liberal and former NPR commentator Juan Williams published an analysis titled, “How Twitter May Have Tipped the Election for Romney,” that could have been cribbed from our pages.  The only difference is our analyses also discussed the additional amplifying effect of other social media sites and the ability of online publications to re-edit their stories to line up with whatever everyone else is saying, as we actually documented in our last UWFR brief of October 23.  Juan Williams may be the first top tier commentator to make the social media case explicitly.  But you (if you wisely assess the value of UWFR) read it here first.


UWFR Readers at the Front of the Herd


The fact is, there are many things that an avid reader of UWFR and its associated updates on Twitter (and formerly Facebook) would have known in advance of the occurrence of an event or public coverage of it, such as that:


·         Six months before Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the presidential race, Ultrapolis predicted on Facebook that his candidacy would implode as soon as his real faculties were exposed to the harsh light of a presidential electoral contest;


·         Two years before it happened, UWFR said Google would ultimately capitulate to China’s terms for access to the Chinese market;


·         Two weeks before any media reported the preparations, UWFR announced the Obama administration would begin planning a military strike in the wake of the events in Libya;


·         Two days before Facebook’s initial public offering (IPO) fell flat and kept falling for months (currently trading at near half its IPO price), Ultrapolis Twitter said the $100 billion dollar value would not be sustained anytime soon, and money should not be invested in the initial offering;


·         One day before every presidential and vice-presidential debate for which UWFR did a forecast, who would be the likely winner;


·         The Rush Limbaugh-Sandra Fluke tempest would have no lasting effect on Limbaugh’s ratings, his program’s availability, and neither would the so-called “War on Women” on the female electorate;


…to name a few things UWFR readers knew in advance of everyone else.


One can follow the herd chasing the latest hyperbolic, melodramatic micro-trend on Facebook and Twitter, or one can be wisely and judiciously in front of it with UWFR.  We thank you for joining us at the front, and applaud you for your wisdom.




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