Ultrapolis Project Forecasts Tracking Chart

From last issue of The Scannapiecan Times, published September 21, 1996.

This tracking chart of forecasts was started in August 2014. A selection of major forecasts made prior to that time was added to this chart at that time. Going forward from August 2014, all major forecasts made in any of the Ultrapolis Project mediums will be included, but this list is not intended to be totally comprehensive of every single prediction made in every article, essay, or social media posting. Comments made by members of the UWFR Reader Panel are published in a following UWFR issue published after their votes are cast. Links to those comments will be made active here once the particular issue is published. If you are interested in becoming a member of a future voting panel, please reach us via our Contact page, any Comments link, or email us at uwfr@ultrapolisproject.com.

LAST UPDATED: 2-19-2015 (U.S. Date Format)

Ultrapolis Project Forecast	Date	Where	UWFR Reader Panel Votes			Status	Resolution
			The panel is made up of three UWFR readers that have identified themselves as leaning in the directions noted below. They each cast a vote on whether they agree with the forecast.
			Very Conservative	Libertarian-Conservative	Liberal
Jeb Bush in 2016: The former Florida governor will not do as well as expected in 2016.	2-6-15	UWFR		No - see comment.	Yes - see comment.	Open
Rand Paul in 2016: The U.S. senator from Kentucky will not be a viable candidate at the top of the GOP ticket in 2016.	2-6-15	UWFR	No - see comment.	Yes - see comment.	Yes - see comment.	Open
Rick Perry in 2016: The former Texas governor will fail the same as we forecast for 2012, but less dramatically this time around.	2-6-15	UWFR		Yes - see comment.	Yes	Open
Executive Orders Fallout: President will not suffer politically from expansive use of executive orders before 2016. However, further use will have less lasting effect should a new president be Republican, and increase the risk of rollback.	11-21-14	UWFR	No vote taken	No vote taken	No vote taken	Open
Ebola to Stabilize: Ebola spread will stabilize, then reach point of slow decline.	11-12-14	Ultrapoliis Twitter	No vote taken	No vote taken	No vote taken	In progress	December 1, 2014, World Health Organization confirms stabilization has begun. Previous claims of stabilization did occur before his forecast, but they were issued by political entities in the affected countries, before the disease spread to the Western countries.
Partisan Gridlock 2016: Partisan gridlock expected to intensify as November 2016 approaches.	11-03-14	UWFR				Open
Paul Ryan Leads in 2016: US Congressman Paul Ryan (WI) will be one of two leading candidates for the Republican nomination for US president in 2016.	10-27-14	Ultrapoliis Twitter	No - see comment.	No - see comment.	Yes - see comment.	NOT in progress	January 12, 2015, Ryan annpounced he will not run. However, we explain in our UWFR February 6, 2015 why we are keeping this forecast open.
Ebola Will Continue Spread: Ebola will continue spread, barring sudden mutation. In the US, if more than twelve infected, healthcare system will be stressed.	10-03-14	Ultrapoliis Twitter	No vote taken	No vote taken	No vote taken	Fulfilled	Virus spread to more westerners and continued fast growth in Africa until our new forecast on stabilization on November 12, 2014 (see above). Spread did not reach 12 in U.S., so system was not stressed.
China Will Be Firm with Hong Kong: We Concur with Andrew Browne analyis at WSJ, published 9-29 online (9-30 in paper). Added on 10/16, China strategy will be to wait out as long as long as possible, crush if necessary. Protesters are doomed to fail. Follow up article in UWFR Nov 3, 2014.	9-30-14, 10-16-14	Ultrapoliis Twitter	Yes	Yes - see comment.	Yes - see comment.	Fulfilled	December 14, 2014, the last of the Umbrella Movement's encampments were dismantled, with no concessions from the authorities. Our more detailed UWFR November 3, 2014 issue said China would try quietly ending by waiting it out. They did.
ISIS Policy Escalation: President Obama will resist any policy change (escalation) that constitutes a clear admission that his initial views on foreign policy were very wrong.	9-11-14	UWFR	Yes	Yes - see comment.	Yes	In progress	February 11, 2015 - President proposes military authorization that would effectively limit scope, and prevent use of ground forces. To-date, ISIS has not been significatly curbed, save for Kobani, and has expanded its terrorist activity.
Perry Indictment: Texas Governor Rick Perry will ultimately be exonerated of the charges of abuse of power for which he was indicted on August 15, 2014.	8-17-14	UWFR	Yes	Yes	Yes	Open	Open
Putin Brinkmanship: Russian president will not retreat in face of Obama counter-strategy. Putin will continue games of brinkmanship until a much tougher response (when we see a Western policy change that qualifies, we will post new forecast).	3-5-2014	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	In progress	February 19, 2015 - Russian-backed rebels attack then take new Ukrainian town hours after latest U.S.-supported ceasefire (after a series of similarly ineffective previously broken ceasefires).
Hillary Clinton to Seek Distance from Obama: This will include planting news stories.	2-10-14, 6-23-14	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	July 7, 2014 - Stories have appeared in preceding weeks suggesting this, but the headline in Wall Street Journal, and similar stories in other papers on the same day certified this forecast.
Elizabeth Warren vs. Hillary Clinton: The Massachusetts Senator will surprise many with her open energetic opposition to Clinton. Look for her to be mentioned and included in presidential 2016 forums.	2-10-14	UWFR	Yes	No - see comment*	No	In progress	January 26, 2015, major Wall Stree Journal editiorial points out Warren possibility.
2014 Elections Lean Right: The elections will lean right, just as 2010 did, but the margin will be closer.	11-27-13	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	November 4, 2014, GOP sweeps elections.
Shutdown Will Not Hurt Republicans in 2014: The Shutdown will not measurably hurt Republicans in 2014. By then, Obamacare will start hurting Democrats.	10-24-13	Ultrapoliis Twitter	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	November 4, 2014, GOP sweeps elections, numerous editorials and new sprograms, inlcuding on NPR and PBS, discuss non-effect of shutdown. See UWFR November 10, 2014 for more on how others got it wrong.
Ted Cruz Shutdown Will Not Defund Obamacare: The junior Senator from Texas has no chance of winning this public goal - and likely knows it. Shutdown will end with small Obama concession not related to defunding Obamacare.	9-25-13, 10-12-13	Ultrapoliis Twitter	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	October 16, 2013 - Senate deal ends shutdown, with no defunding of Obamacare, and a small concession ("terrible deal" in Senator Cruz's words) to Republicans.
Obama Foreign Policy Voter Judgment: Right now the president is actually doing what the people want him to do in specific terms, but Americans eventually judge a president on whether he is successful in his foreign policies, not on whether he stayed out of conflicts as surveys show they want as of this forecast.	9-1-13, 11-27-13, 3-4-14, 6-23-14	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	September 4, 2014 - Polls a year ago showed most Americans agreed with the President's specific foreign policies of withdrawal. Polls have since turned against the President as shown in low approval ratings for his policies, and voters have switched their views on American intervention abroad, turned away from their previous agreement with the President. News stories and editorials in the last 6 months, including pro-Obama Washington Post and The New York Times, have been saying this more and more, but latest polls, as discussed by former Clinton adviser William A. Galston in today's Wall Street Journal seal the deal for us.
Obama Will Not Escape Blame for Syria: Regardless of whether he gets Congressional approval or not for whatever he does, the President will not escape judgment for whatever comes to Syria.	9-7-13	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	September 4, 2014 -This forecast is closely related to the one above. This one is more specific in pointing out that seeking Congressional approval would do nothing for him in the long term, if things fell apart, and that has proved true.
Supreme Court to Punt on Gay Marriage: Will likely split the difference. Court, wary of setting far-reaching precedent, will try punt.	3-26-13	Ultrapoliis Twitter	N/A	N/A	N/A	Half right	June 26, 2013, October 6, 2014 - While the court did split in 2013, did not rule gay marriage a Constitutional right per se in two rulings, and declined three gay marriage cases in 2014, the decisions by the court, did have far-reaching effects, as predicted by Supreme Court Justice Scalia in 2013 in his dissent on the initial rulings. Despite the technical specifics of the 2013 rulings that specifically did not make gay marriage a Constitutional right, the rulings will be employed as if they did.
Hillary Clinton Not aSurefire Winner for 2016: The dark side of the former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary, will become evident as election coverage picks up, and hostile, anti-Clinton Democrats seek alternative. Clinton will face a much harder contest, and polls will be very close.	3-3-13, 5-28-13	UWFR	Yes	Yes - see comment*	Yes	In progress	January 26, 2015, major Wall Stree Journal editiorial points out Warren possibility.
Hillary Clinton Will Run for President in 2016: Barring a health issue, or some unforseeable revelation that damages her prospects irreparably, Ms. Clinton will run.	3-3-13	UWFR	Yes	Yes - see comment*	Yes	Open	Open
Chris Christie No Shoe-In Winner for 2016: We said he displayed signs of either of a willingness to make things worse for others for personal gain, or of an impulsive personality that would pander for popular approval (turns out it was both); and expect that he will trip up in amidst a cascade of praise.	1-18-13	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	In progress	January 2014 - Scandal reports drive polls down, making the candidacy anything but a sure thing. Since the forecast, made while New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was riding high in polls, the governor's ratings have fallen precipitously, in a way no one in any venue predicted except UWFR.
Limbaugh Ratings Drop Illusion, Signal Nothing: In the wake of his on-air reference to Sandra Fluke that her demand for taxpayer-paid condoms makes her "a slut", ratings drop and advertiser flee is temporary, since drop follows a temporary surge.	5-22-12	Ultrapoliis Twitter	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	September 2012 - Rush Limbaugh ratings remain #1 in the country, and at levels no lower than before controversy. Left-wing hype that Fluke remarks hurt his ratings was just hype.
Facebook Will Not Fulfilll IPO Valuation: FB will not fulfill $100 billion valuation anytime soon.	5-16-12	Ultrapoliis Twitter	N/A	N/A	N/A	Half right	May 17, 2012-August 17, 2013 - Original valuation was not fulfilled as expected by most, to great initial embarrassment for Facebook and its bankers. However, after over a year, Facebook unveiled new mobil ad program that raised its share price to IPO level and above.
Rick Perry will not succeed as a candidate in 2012: Prior to the Texas governor's entry into the race, explained that the governor would not stand up well under national spot light.	02-11-11	Ultrapolis Facebook	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	January 19, 2012 - Texas Governor Rick Perry announces withdrawal from 2012 presidential race, following a series of embarrassing gaffes.
Obama Will Be Re-elected in 2012: Suggested tentatively first in wake of 2010 Republican landslide, that Republicans were mis-reading 2010 election, repeated more concretely in January 2012.	10-28-10, 11-4-10, 1-25-12	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	November 6, 2012 - President Barack Hussein Obama re-elected. UWFR is the only venue we know of that in the days following the 2010 elections, when Republicans proclaimed an national realignment and Democrats were in stunned silence, predicted Obama's re-election prospects as positive.
Obama Will Not Repeal Obamacare: In expected wake of GOP electoral wins, pundits and GOP propose such wins will facilitate forcing Obama to repeal Obamacare. Will not happen.	11-4-10	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	November 6, 2012 - President Barack Hussein Obama re-elected, and Obamacare was not repealed, despite widespread opposition from conservatives, and anxiety from liberals and Democrats, over the program.
Republicans Will Not Moderate Post-2010: In expected wake of electoral wins, punditry asks if a more “responsible” and more “moderate” GOP will result. This will not happen. Not now. Not in 2012. 2010 electoral gains by the Republicans will only reinforce ideological rigidity within the party.	10-28-10, 11-4-10	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	November 2, 2010- November 6, 2012 - Following GOP wins, prominent right-wing talk show hosts proclaimed national electoral realignment, and the need for GOP to move right. in 2012, President Barack Hussein Obama re-elected, despite serious problems with the economy and widespread disapproval of his signature Obamacare legislation, even as more moderate Republicans were replaced by more conservative and more partisan ones.
Obama Will Not Stop Iran From Pursuing Nuclear Arms: There is nothing Obama is prepared to do to stop Iran's zig zag progress in developing its nuclear weapons program.	2-10-10	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	In progress	February 19, 2015 - U.N. agency says Iran still has not provided information needed to confirm it has not continued research on atomic bomb.
Sarah Palin Will Not Shine at Fox News: News analyst gig will make former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's shortcomings more obvious to everyone, even at Fox.	1-13-10	UWFR	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	January 25, 2013 - Huffington Post reports that Fox News did not renew Sarah Palin's contract, after cutting her appearances, and was labeled "stupid" by Fox News' CEO Roger Ailes.
Military Face-off with China: By 2025, the United States will find itself challenged militarily by China, where the choice for the American president will be to back down, or fire. When this prediction was made, China was the world's 10th largest economy.	9-21-96	The Scannapiecan Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	In progress	In the intervening years, China has become the world's 2nd largest economy, behind only the U.S. itself, surpassing Canada, Italy, the U.K., France, Germany, and Japan in that time.
Somalia US Withdrawal to Provoke Terrorism: President Clinton's withdrawal of US forces from Somalia, in the wake of the killing of 18 US Marines, will lead to future terrorist attacks against US. Prior to this forecast, there was one major terrorist attack on Americans in the previous six years.	3-9-93	Head to Head TV show	N/A	N/A	N/A	Fulfilled	August 1996 - Osama Bin Laden issued first fatwa declaring war on America, and specifically cited the retreat in Somalia as an event to embolden jihadists, evidence that America will retreat when attacked. Al-Qaeda then killed 19 Americans in a bombing in Saudi Arabia, bombed the embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, attempted to bomb millennium celebrations in Seattle (foiled), bombed USS Cole, and finished with the spectacular attacks on the Pentagon, the downing of four passenger planes, and the destruction of the two World Trade Center towers in New York City (it is suspected more planes were boarded by Al-Qaeda, but were thwarted by the swift closing of all US and Canadian airspace). For the eight years that followed Clinton's withdrawal, the rate of major terrorist acts quadrupled.