2011 Marked by Influx of Beta Cities New to Top 25

Historic Shake-up in Rankings
Bad Data on the Internet
After a review of the 2005 ranking data, it was determined that two towers, the Al Fattan Towers, reported as completed in Dubai by December 31, 2005, were actually not finished until February 2006, resulting in incorrect scoring for Dubai for 2005 (now corrected). A broader review exposed additional bad data in a few of the cities ranked. Another major correction to the information we had was the removal of the Grand Duta Hyatt in Kuala Lumpur, a building still reported as completed in 2004 by various sources, but that was never actually built.

A subsequent investigation determined that many of the most respected websites and hard-copy sources publishing skyscraper and other building information had incorrect information, which was often repeated by different sources, or published data in an inconsistent manner.

2011 turned out, to our own surprise, to have the most radical changes in the Ultrapolis World’s Twenty-Five Tallest Cities rankings since we started the survey; and we confidently say that in no other year since skyscrapers started being built at the end of the 19th century in the United States, has there been such a change in the statuses of the world’s tallest cities, or so many records being broken in so many different urban areas.  For a century New York City stood as the world’s tallest city by a wide margin, with its fellow American cities of Chicago, Houston, and Los Angeles reigning alongside it for decades in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th places respectively, and American cities dominated the top for just as long. In the 1990’s we started seeing the first signs of the disturbance of that order, which was then largely overturned in the first decade of the 21st century. 

Current Procedures
Our procedures now call for verification of the existence and completion of buildings not previously reviewed or documented, after we complete the initial review of all 1,400-plus buildings and towers in our growing database. This database includes the name, built date, roof and spire height, and existence documentation when deemed necessary. New buildings for which evidence of their completion cannot be found will be excluded.

In order to rank skyline heights, several methods were reviewed, and the following one was determined to reflect most closely what one would see with the naked eye if the city skylines were placed against each other; that is, which would appear taller. Most methods yielded similar results.

For each city, a review of the tallest 25-30 buildings is conducted, depending on the level of new construction, to determine which buildings are new and which are complete, and to verify in which year they can start being ranked. Because some buildings will rank differently depending on the inclusion of their spire, some buildings may not be included in one calculated score of its city's top ten, but are included in another. This also occurs when including towers. To track any corrections to height information, and prevent duplication of data for the same building, alternative building names are tracked for each city's top 30.
Where the Buildings Are
The Beta Five
It’s not just that more skyscrapers are being built than ever before, although that is certainly true at a record of 88 buildings of at least 656 feet (200m) having been reported completed by the Council of Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH Journal, Issue 1), with ten of those close to 1000 feet or more (300m); and it’s not just that the pace of new construction is accelerating, as it has dramatically since the middle of the aughts, probably as an echo of new projects started prior to the world economic recession. What is more remarkable is that in 2011 the skyscraper construction was concentrated in a few cities, not scattered throughout the world, and that these cities are not so-called “Alpha” cities like Shanghai or Hong Kong. Instead, cities hardly prominent on the world stage have followed Dubai’s lead, a city which itself was a village just sixty years ago, and have engaged in the construction of not one or two of their first true skyscrapers, but dozens at once, upending our rankings virtually overnight.

The New Members of the Top 25

The First Latin American City

The cities that pushed their way into the Ultrapolis World’s Twenty-Five Tallest Cities, in rank order, are: Busan, South Korea; Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.; Panama City, Panama; Kuwait City, Kuwait; and Doha, Qatar.  None of these were among the top 25 last year, and just ten years ago would not have been among the top 100.  Busan made the most stunning gain, moving up to tenth place from a position far too low last year to accurately place (below 50th), and pushing Houston out of the top ten for the first time since the 1970’s (Houston was 3rd at its highest rank in the mid-1980’s and early 1990’s).  Meanwhile, Panama City, which completed the most 200-meter-plus buildings in 2011 (ten), moved from 33rd in 2010 to 16th, just above Los Angeles, and way above all the biggest metropolises of Latin America, becoming the first and only Latin American city to make the top 25.

 

Among the top ten there was less drama, but still some, with Shenzhen moving up past Kuala Lumpur, as it completed the tallest building in 2011, the Kingkey 100, a 100-story, 1,449-foot tower that is a hair shy of being the equal of Chicago’s Sears (Willis) Tower.  This new tower ranks 8th in the world, (soon to be 9th when the new menacing-looking 1,972-foot Abraj Al Bait “Clock Tower” is completed in Mecca in 2012 and becomes the 2nd tallest building in the world).
Calculation Method (CAHTT)
Three separate scores are compiled for each city: The sum of the heights of its ten tallest buildings up to the roof (spire not counted); the sum of the heights of its ten tallest buildings and towers, including the spires; and, the sum of the heights of its ten tallest towers and buildings (up to roof only). We do not consider the number of stories since they are not a good indicator of a building's actual height. The scores are added together and then divided by three.The result of this is to give more weight to actual floor space (100% value) than to spires (33% value) that are often little more than needles in the air, or towers that also do not occupy much space in the air (67% value).
In keeping with standard practice as established by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, antennas are not counted.
 
We refer to this method as the Calculated Average Height of the Ten Tallest, or CAHTT.

In ranking, categories became apparent, thus the tiers. Tier 1 are those five cities with skylines significantly higher than all others. The sub-categories of A and B note the clumping of the scores with Tier 1B cities' composite scores closely clump around 950-1000 in 2011, while both 1A cities have notably higher scores, currently above 1030. Tier 2 cities' scores are significantly lower than the five Tier 1 cities, and, between 2000 and 2007,closely clumped between 700 and 810. Between 2000 and 2007,Tier 3 are those below 700. For 2008-2011, the 730 is the new minimum score for a Tier 2 classification.

The survey reviews the statistics of over 1,400 buildings and towers in 40 cities, and does an annual cursory review of a dozen more potential qualifiers for the top 25.

From Moscow to Tokyo, to Chinese Village

New Record Heights
In other developments, Moscow is completing a new complex of towers that already includes the tallest building in Europe, the 72-story, 989-foot (301.6m) City of Capitals Moscow; and will add an even taller one in 2012, the 1089-foot (332m) Mercury Tower. Moscow, the first and only city of Europe to rank in the Ultrapolis Top 25, moved up to 14th in 2011.
In a 2012 landmark development, Tokyo just completed the world’s newest tallest tower (as opposed to building - think Seattle’s Space Needle or San Antonio’s Tower of the Americas, but much bigger). At 2,080 feet to its pinnacle, the Tokyo Sky Tree surpassed the previous, brief record-holder, the Canton Tower in Guangzhou, which overtook Toronto’s CN tower just in 2009, itself built in 1976. For those in Texas, think three Towers of the Americas stacked on top of each other.

If the Asian building boom’s Middle East front has just moved beyond Dubai, in China it continues its spread beyond its first and second tier cities, with thirty-three Chinese cities now sporting at least one 200m+ tower. In an extreme case, the village of Huaxi, home to 30,000, has just completed a tower just slightly taller than the Chrysler building in New York (see New York Times article). Perhaps Lufkin or Nacogdoches should be so inspired. Still, the bigger Chinese cities still hold the edge, with Tianjin now embarked on a 117-story, 1,957-foot building that will become the world’s fourth (not first or second) tallest building when completed in 2015.
Discussion on Methods Used by Other Skyline-Ranking Websites
American Cities Continue Exit from Top 25
The above approach, of course is not is not about determining which skyline is more aesthetic, or which appears more imposing when seen by itself, as other skyline ranking sites aim to do. It is merely an objective measurement of actual vertical dimension.
 
Some visitors have pointed out to us (some boosters of Hong Kong and some of New York City) that their city should be on top because their city has more tall buildings. The problem with the approach of counting buildings is that one is no longer measuring actual height, but quantity of buildings. Certainly, a larger quantity of buildings may make a skyline appear more impressive, even if all the buildings are less than 500 feet tall, but it does not make it taller. This is why sites such as Emporis.com and Egbert Gramsbergen and Paul Kazmierczak's "The World's Best Skylines" rank Sao Paulo relatively high on their lists even though it has few buildings above 500 feet, and none above 1,000 feet. Those rankings do not focus solely on height (nor do they claim to) as we aim to do here.

Why this ranking? We believe it is one measure of the changing balance of power in our world.

The CTBUH report points out that in 1990, the U.S. accounted for 66% of all the 200m+ buildings completed that year.  In 2011, that number was 2.3%.  The world may be in recession, but the construction industry is still creating more jobs than ever in many places outside the U.S., in part due to economic bets placed by American corporations that see more profits in lower-paid, less-protected employees elsewhere.

 

As recently as 2000, eleven American Cities were among the tallest 25, and four were in the top ten.  With the departure in 2011 of Dallas and Philadelphia from the top 25, and Houston from the top ten, it is now five and two, respectively.  By contrast, only four Chinese cities were in the top 25 in 2000, two of them in the top ten.  In 2011, with a lot more competition, the Chinese now have six and four respectively.

 

As part of that trend, Guangzhou squeezed past New York City, pushing the former number one world’s tallest city for a century, further down, now to 6th place. New York City's rapid fall from its long-held first place, abruptly initiated by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, may see a brief halt, perhaps even partial reversal, if the full slate of new World Trade Center towers are completed in the next three years as planned (which is not a certainty), along with the One 57 skyscraper in the Midtown area, possibly securing even a third or fourth place in 2015 (even if they had all been completed in 2011, New York would still rank only second).  One measure in which New York does and will always lead is in its richness of monumental skyscrapers of an earlier era that feature massive, yet intricate and beautiful masonry work. 

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And, any visitor to any of the cities in these rankings will find that New York's skyline is still the most impressive to see, perhaps because of its vast number of great buildings - just as the city remains the most cosmopolitan and exciting city to visit in the world.  In any case, as American cities recede in prominence in this realm, as they are in others, and Arabian and Chinese cities take their place, it will be interesting to discover how well the new skylines are maintained by their newly rich owners.  In particular, visitors to China may notice that skyscrapers that in the West would look new for decades, already look weathered within only a few years of being built in China.  Will they learn that these buildings require rigorous and constant maintenance, year after year?  Or will we see structural incidents as they have in China with their gleaming bullet trains? We predict that after a few more mishaps, they will learn.
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